Weekend Forecast: ‘Maze Runner’ to Take First, Best Picture Nominees Expand

After nearly a month in first place, Jumanji is set to lose first place to Fox’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure, the third and final film in the Maze Runner trilogy. Also opening is Entertainment Studios’ Hostiles, while a number of Best Picture nominees will be headed back into theaters following the Academy’s nominations.

Maze Runner: The Death Cure seemingly marks the end of the long running YA adaptation genre, after every other major franchise ended several years ago, with no more major releases on the schedule. The three-quel was long delayed following an on set injury, leading many to expect a significant drop-off from the second installment, The Scorch Trials. The last comparable title would be Allegiant, the third of four planned films in the Divergent series, with the final installment being cancelled by Lionsgate after a terrible performance. That film suffered a 45% drop from the second installment, which would place Death Cure at around $16.5M for the weekend. I’m anticipating it won’t drop quite that much, but it also will most likely not do too much over $20M.

Hostiles is getting a surprisingly wide release in 2,850 theaters, as the western drama was originally set to be released last weekend, but was pushed back to avoid the flurry of competition following MLK weekend. Marketing has emphasized the films strong reviews and star power, but with a hefty $40M production budget and a general lack of online interest, finding an audience will be difficult, especially with two other R rated action films both opening over $15M last weekend. Entertainment Studios is supposedly projecting a $12M weekend, which seems highly unlikely. Their last nationwide release, Friend Request, opened to just $2M. Their predictions had it at the $8-$10M range.

Following the Academy Award nominations earlier this week, a slew of titles are re-entering theaters. The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, and Phantom Thread are all going into over 1,000 theaters, while I, Tonya is just below that at 960. All of these titles should be looking at around $3-$4M for the weekend, with the exception to this being Shape of Water, due to its higher theater count (1,800) and 13 nominations, the most out of any film nominated. These two factors could push the film into the top 5 if all the stars align.

Get Out is also headed back into theaters, though a comparatively more modest number at 468. This makes sense considering the film already pulled in more than $175M domestic and has been available on home video since May.

Roadside Attraction’s Forever my Girl will expand into around 1,400 theaters this weekend, which should be enough to give it a decent hold.

Among other holdovers, Den of Thieves will likely see a fairly steep decline as January action movies aimed at young men typically do, while 12 Strong should benefit from its A Cinemascore and older audience to avoid a drop of more than 50% or so. The Greatest Showman will also likely be in the top 5 until around August or so, as it continues dipping less than 20% weekend after weekend.

Predictions