After the dismal performance of Universal’s Firestarter, two studios are opening very different titles aimed at older audiences, which will be the first releases so far to offer any meaningful competition to the reigning champion, Doctor Strange. Focus Features opens Downtown Abbey: A New Era, while A24’s buzzy horror-thriller Men hopes to translate its niche appeal into a successful wide release.
In an era where older audiences have been consistently hesitant about returning to theaters, Downton Abbey: A New Era may be somewhat of a landmark as far as proving viability for films aimed specifically at older audiences, as the first film (released in 2019) did incredibly strong business, grossing over $96 million off of a $31 million opening. Obviously, it wouldn’t be reasonable to expect a repeat performance, as the first film was a legitimate box office event – a rarity amongst television adaptations in the streaming era. However, the fanbase has proven to be loyal enough that this sequel should have no trouble recouping its $40 million production cost.
Note: The budget for Downton Abbey: A New Era was originally listed at $29.7 million, but this has been updated to reflect the correct number of $40 million.
Releasing in a surprisingly wide 2,500 locations, A24’s new horror film Men should easily be the most polarizing title in the top 5 this weekend. Critics have been generally positive at 78%, albeit not quite as much as director Alex Garland’s past films, Ex Machina and Annihilation. Both of those films had more traditional conceptual appeal, as well as stronger word of mouth – word is, Men will be highly off-putting to general audiences, which may limit its appeal.
This is the second horror film A24 has put out this year, as March’s X took in an okay $11 million domestic. Since lockdown, the A24 crowd has opened most of their films to a rather consistent $4-6 million, with the remainder of their performance largely being dictated by word of mouth. If audiences aren’t into Men, it could easily get obliterated by the opening of Top Gun: Maverick next Thursday.
Even if Downton Abbey and Men open on the higher end of expectations, their openings still likely wouldn’t add up to what Doctor Strange will earn in its third weekend. A drop of around 52% would make sense following the performance of past MCU titles with similar second weekend drops.
Predictions
- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness – $29,766,297
- Downton Abbey: A New Era – $22,384,915
- Men – $4,267,942
- The Bad Guys – $4,867,939
- Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – $3,700,642
Bombs and Blockbusters 