Weekend Forecast: ‘Jungle Book’ Set to Swing Into First

THE JUNGLE BOOK

With its critical acclaim, Disney brand and excellent marketing, The Jungle Book is set to easily take first place with over $70M. Meanwhile, Barbershop: The Next Cut and Criminal are also getting nationwide releases, while Green Room and Sing Street hit the specialty market.

The Jungle Book is the latest in Disney’s very successful line of live action fairy tale adaptations, the most successful of which to date has been Alice In Wonderland, which shocked just about everyone with over $1B worldwide back in 2010. Of course, most of that was a result of it being released just a few months after Avatar, and as a result was able to capitalize on being the next big 3D/IMAX event film. Regardless, their other releases such as Maleficent and Cinderella have both been very successful, and it seems like The Jungle Book has a legitimate chance at $80M. While Maleficent was just shy of $70M and Cinderella was closer to $65M, The Jungle Book has a much wider appeal outside of the primarily female demographic, and marketing that makes it clear that The Jungle Book needs to be seen on a giant, 3D screen. Not to mention, it currently has an excellent 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, which will likely help some more casual viewers decide to check it out.

Barbershop: The Next Cut arrives a full 12 years after its predecessor, which pulled in an impressive $33M on its opening weekend when adjusted for inflation. However, it doesn’t really seem like something worthy of getting a sequel this much later, but it still seems as though there should be an audience. The film currently has a surprisingly high 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, and should be able to do $20M+ this weekend.

Criminal seemed as though it had potential to be somewhat of a sleeper hit among adult audiences, but unfortunately its vague advertising and awful 17% on Rotten Tomatoes will likely prevent it from getting past $10M this weekend. One thing that could help the $31M crime thriller is its cast, which includes Kevin Costner, Tommy Lee Jones, Gary Oldman and many others. However, while distributor Summit Entertainment has done tons of marketing for the film, the trailers don’t exactly give a clear hook or intriguing premise outside of a typical thriller, which will likely hinder its performance.

As far as holdovers go, Zootopia will likely see its biggest drop yet with direct competition from The Jungle Book, which The Boss will likely fall around 45%. Batman V Superman will probably have a very sharp drop as its losing nearly all of its IMAX, 3D and Premium Large Format screens to The Jungle Book this weekend.

Among the specialty market releases, Green Room should do very strong business in its New York/Los Angeles release, before a small expansion next week and a nationwide release on the 29th. Sing Street is being released in just 5 theaters, but doesn’t seem like it has any real buzz, and as a result will likely not do terribly well.

Bar for Success

In line with the other Disney adaptations, The Jungle Book is in very good shape at $70M. Barbershop: The Next Cut is fine at $20M while Criminal needs $10M to get a pass.

Weekend Predictions

  1. The Jungle Book – $78M
  2. Barbershop: The Next Cut – $21.5M
  3. The Boss – $12M
  4. Batman V Superman – $10.5M
  5. Criminal – $8M
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