Weekend Forecast: ‘The Boss’, ‘Henry’ Attempt to Take Down ‘Batman V Superman’

Boss, The (2016)

After two weeks in first place, Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice could possibly lose that position to The Boss or Hardcore Henry this weekend. Realistically, however, best case scenario for both of those films is high teens, while Dawn of Justice should be able to top $20M once again.

The Boss is the latest in a series of Melissa McCarthy R rated comedies, following Identity Thief, The Heat, Spy and Tammy. Of those four, only Tammy was given very poor reviews and a mediocre box office reception. Unfortunately, The Boss is from the same director as Tammy, and seems to hit many similar notes in the advertising. This will likely wind up on the lower end of the spectrum, with a debut in the $20M range seeming likely.

Hardcore Henry is the latest festival acquisition to get a wide release, this time thanks to distributor STX Entertainment. This is a practice that’s become popular with A24, who have found big success with films like The Witch and Spring Breakers. Surprisingly, the film is getting released in over 3,000 theaters. Considering its a very niche indie film that was shot entirely with GoPros, that’s a pretty shockingly high number. Typically, a film like this would get released in 1,000-2,000 theaters and get a small marketing push, but STX seems to have gone all out with marketing and release, but it still doesn’t seem like something that can really pull in a huge audience. A 90 minute, first person action sequence definitely sounds interesting, but isn’t something that a ton of people are going to drop $12 to watch in a theater. Considering the films very unique premise, it seems like it would have garnered more attention on social media, but overall it has been fairly quiet. The film originally went on the festival circuit as Hardcore, but was changed a few months ago when it was acquired. STX got the rights to the film for $10M with the condition that it would get a nationwide release, which seems like a reasonable amount of money for a film that will likely do much better in the home video market. Unfortunately, reviews haven’t been great, as the film currently has a 49% on Rotten Tomatoes, which could certainly hinder its potential.

Also opening is Demolition, a new drama starring Jake Gyllenhaal. Fox Searchlight is releasing the film into 854 theaters, which is a surpsingly large opening for a film of this kind. While it does seem as though it could be appealing to a general audience, it also doesn’t seem to have a ton of attention and is being released amidst quite a bit of competition. With a mediocre 56% on Rotten Tomatoes, Demolition is going to have a hard time finding much attention this weekend.

Midnight Special is also getting a considerable expansion this weekend, though without much marketing it probably won’t top $3 or $4 million.

Overall, it should be a fairly quiet weekend before The Jungle Book comes swinging in with a very strong debut.

Bar for Success

The Boss should be able to hit $20M this weekend to be considered a success, while Hardcore Henry is fine at $10M.

Weekend Predictions

  1. Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice – $21.5M
  2. The Boss – $16.5M
  3. Zootopia – $13.5M
  4. Hardcore Henry – $7M
  5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $6.5M

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