Weekend Forecast: ‘The Boy’ Set to Top Newcomers

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Three new January releases (and I do mean January releases) hit theaters this week. The one that has been screened for critics currently has a 21%, the other has 2 reviews (both negative) and the third has none so far.

What a wonderful time of the year.

The Boy, STX Entertainment’s low budget supernatural horror film relies around creepy dolls and young women in scary situations and other uninteresting, poorly produced garbage. The PG-13 January horror film has sadly become a staple in the release schedule, with The Forest doing solid business just a few weeks ago and The Boy Next Door doing solid business last year. This trend is likely going to continue with the release of The Boy, as young teens and tweens have flocked around the film on social media, the ever popular creepy-doll aspect proving to be as effective as ever. Between that target audience showing up and a lack of major competition, The Boy should be able to top $10M for the weekend.

The latest proof that there is no hope for humanity, Dirty Grandpa is being released in over 2,900 theaters. The Robert De Niro and Zac Efron comedy looks like a fairly average raunchy road trip film, and both of the stars are decent enough attractions at the box office. De Niro showed that he still has a bit of acting talent left in Joy, while Zac Efron has this summers Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising just around the corner. The R rating will likely keep Efron’s teen audience away, but the inclusion of De Niro may get some of the older audience. Still, it will likely wind up with around $9M-$11M for the weekend.

Finally, The 5th Wave is the latest in the ever so popular young adult trend – stop me if you’ve heard this one before – pitting a normal teenage girl thrown into peril amidst a near future dystopian North America, while some sort of paranormal force threatens her relationship between two men she must choose between. Unfortunately, the trailers have done next to nothing to sell the film to anyone who is unfamiliar with the book, and the book isn’t exactly popular enough to lead to a great opening weekend. The sci-fi aspect may help a bit, with aliens being one of the only frontiers unexplored by poor quality YA romance, but it still will have a hard time getting past $15M this weekend. The studio seems to be aware of this, as the film has a budget of just $38M, and a fairly limited marketing campaign to boot. This seems like one YA film that won’t span out into a trilogy any time soon.

Among holdovers, Star Wars should be able to take in around $15M, while The Revenant should take first place once again with around $20M. This should be a fairly quiet weekend until Kung Fu Panda 3 takes first next weekend after a major lack of animated family entertainment.

Weekend Predictions

  1. The Revenant – $22M
  2. Ride Along 2 – $16.5M
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens – $15.5m
  4. The Boy – $11M
  5. The 5th Wave – $10.5M

Dirty Grandpa – $9.8M

Bar for Success

Dirty Grandpa and The Boy are fine at $10M, while The 5th Wave needs $15M to get a pass.

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