Weekend Forecast: “Krampus” to Capitalize on Post-Thanksgiving Food Coma

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Thanks to an intriguing and highly entertaining trailer, Krampus may be the first post-Thanksgiving new release to top $10M since 2005’s Aeon Flux. The weekend after Thanksgiving is always a quiet one, which quite honestly doesn’t really make much sense. Universal is obviously capitalizing on the lack of new releases with a low budget niche film that probably wouldn’t appeal to last weekends Creed or The Good Dinosaur. If there aren’t any massive releases over Thanksgiving, it seems like a good opportunity to release a Christmas film – rather than mid November.

Krampus is a low budget horror comedy based on the ancient legend of the same name. The marketing has confused many, as they don’t know if it’s supposed to be funny or scary or a black comedy. The idea of a horror comedy is rare for a multi million dollar wide release film, typically they are direct to home media or smaller independent films, but the sheer absurdity and intrigue behind the premise may lead it to be a surprise hit, especially with the PG-13 rating. It doesn’t seem like something that would necesarilly appeal to an adult audience, and that younger audience may fuel it as they did for Insidious: Chapter 3 or The Visit. There’s only been a few R rated horror films in 2015, and none of them did great business. Sinister 2 opened to just $10M, way less than it’s predecessor, The Gallows made $9.8M and Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension made just $8M. Granted, that had a decidedly different type of release, but it still makes the point. Krampus should likely be able to make over $10M this weekend.

The only other new release is The Letters, which unfortunately has been completely panned by critics.The film has just 17% on Rotten Tomatoes and is getting released in just 886 theaters. Limited releases pretty much rely on great reviews and buzz, something that The Letters severely lacks either of those and as a result will likely lead to a nearly non existent debut.

One of the most highly anticipated foreign films of the year, Macbeth, gets released in 5 theaters this weekend. Thanks to lots of buzz and strong reviews, this should have no problem getting a very strong per theater average. It likely won’t get a nationwide release, but it will probably get most of its gross from overseas results.

Weekend Predictions

  1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 – $21M
  2. The Good Dinosaur – $18.5M
  3. Krampus – $14.5M
  4. Creed – $13.5M
  5. Spectre – $7.5M

Bar for Success

Krampus is a relatively low budget horror film that’s probably going to make most of its money from Home Media, so anything over $10M is a win.

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