Weekend Forecast: “Good Dinosaur” To Top Bountiful Thanksgiving

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Thanksgiving weekend will see three new very different major releases; The Good Dinosaur marks the first time Pixar is releasing two films in one year and will likely see a very strong debut this weekend. Creed may end up being a bit of a sleeper hit thanks to excellent reviews, strong buzz and brand recognition, whereas Victor Frankenstein will likely settle for scraps. Did You Know? This is the first time that any box office related article has ever referred to a poorly received Thanskgiving film with the phrase “settle for scraps” or “leftovers”.

The Good Dinosaur marks Pixar’s second film of the year, the first was surprise hit Inside Out, but there’s reason to believe that The Good Dinosaur could potentially be a big hit. Jurassic World made dinosaurs very popular, and that films success could potentially boost this films gross. The only other children’s film out right now is The Peanuts Movie, which likely won’t effect this films gross all that much. For one, they are very different, are going for different audiences, and Peanuts has already had a lot of time to boost grosses. Even though that film hasn’t been a massive breakout hit, this film has Pixar and Dinosaurs, so it’s easily going to be a big hit.

Creed could wind up being a bit of a surprise for a number of reasons. The films premise is admittedly a clever way of getting a new star in the main role while still incorporating the role of Sylvester Stallone in his most famous role. The film also has a fantastic 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and does seem like a strong choice for a Holiday film. Southpaw was a bit of a surprise back in late summer, opening to $16.7M and grossing $90M worldwide, $52.4M domestically. That $16.7M weekend is even higher than the adjusted opening of Rocky Balboa, though admittedly that was a Christmas release, where films typically have much lower openings. Even so, that film was a bit disappointing as it only grossed $70M domestically. Creed has a legitimate chance of out grossing that if it sees strong word of mouth.

The final new release is obvious flop Victor Frankenstein, a January film that is, for some reason, getting a Thanksgiving release. The film has an atrocious 14% on Rotten Tomatoes, putting it in line with such masterpieces as I, Frankenstein (3%) Seventh Son (12%) and Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters (15%). Having that comparison is never a flattering sign, and this will likely see lower grosses than any of those films given that it is coming out in a much more competitive time of the release schedule. The films budget was originally being reported at $90M, but is now down to $40M. This could be the studio trying to cover their losses, as the film clearly cost more than $40M to produce. The Last Witch Hunter pulled a similar tactic, as it was originally reported at $90M, was brought down to $60-$70M during release and is now back up to $90M. Only time will tell I suppose.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 will likely take a first or second place debut depending on how well it holds this weekend, and is going to be competing primarily with The Good Dinosaur. If it performs similarly to past installments, it will likely take in around $65M over the five day weekend.

Weekend Predictions

  1. The Good Dinosaur $58M ($75M Five Day)
  2. The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 $45M ($62M Five Day)
  3. Creed $18M ($26M Five Day)
  4. Spectre  – $9M ($12M Five Day)
  5. The Peanuts Movie – $8.5M ($11M Five Day)

Victor Frankenstein – $5.2M ($9M Five Day

Bar for Success

The Good Dinosaur doesn’t need to be another Frozen or Inside Out, but if it does $60M over the five day weekend, its a win. Creed is solid at $20M, whereas Victor Frankenstein needs at least $15M to get a pass.

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