Saturday Update: “Mockingjay” Misses The Mark

the_hunger_games_mockingjay_part_2_katniss

Turns out splitting a book into two films might not always have the effects you want it to.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 fell way short of its predecessors on Friday, and there’s a legitimate chance that it may miss the century mark over the weekend.

The series finale opened with $46M on Friday, $16M of which was from early previews. That’s way lower than Mockingjay Part 1 ($55.1M) and far lower than Catching Fire ($70.9M). It’s also way off from the original’s $67.2M. If it follows a similar course to Mockingjay Part 1, than it will wind up with just around $98M for the weekend. That’s a huge drop off, and shows that audiences just lost interest in paying twice to see one film.

There were other films that opened this weekend, however. The Night Before took in $3.56M on its opening day. That’s pretty weak for an R rated comedy with such a star studded cast, but it isn’t very surprising given that audiences just aren’t interested in Christmas films so early in the season. The $25M comedy is likely going to wind up with around $10M this weekend, but may find some saving grace in strong holds throughout the next month or so.

Secret in their Eyes was only so-so with a $2.3M opening day. That sets the course for a $7M weekend or so, which isn’t very surprising given its heavy subject matter and poor reviews.

Finally, Spotlight had a semi-wide expansion this weekend $1M from 598 locations. That’s a pretty solid weekend, and between Oscar buzz and a widely known, highly controversial premise, Spotlight should have no problem grossing over $20M at the domestic box office. Between today and its two weekends in wide release, it has already outgrossed Truth ($2.3M) by a hefty amount.

Carol was extremely impressive in its very limited release. In just 4 theaters, the film grossed $78K for a per theater average of $19.6K. If it can hold well, it will likely see a per theater average of well over $50K, making it one of the strongest limited releases of the year so far. Legend was less impressive with $29K for a $7.25K per theater average. Obviously Carol was going to be the higher of the two, and Legend didn’t even seem like something fit for a micro release like this. Legend will likely take in around $85K for the weekend.

Updated Predictions

  1. Mockingjay Part 2 – $98.5M
  2. The Night Before – $10.1M
  3. Secret in their Eyes – $6.8M
  4. Spotlight – $3.5M
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