Weekend Forecast: “Spectre” to Overshadow Weak Competition

Without any strong competition, Spectre may take first place on its second weekend, but it will also see strong competition from The Peanuts Movie.

The 33 is the first of two releases this weekend, and is a based on a true story film about the Chilean miners who were trapped for an extended period of time. The movie has avoided the typical problem that many stories like this have of seeming exploitive and just trying to turn a profit based on a well known event. Unfortunately, it only has a weak 34% on Rotten Tomatoes. Because of this, a lack of marketing and too much appealing competition, it will likely wind up with under $10M.

The other new release is Love the Coopers, which is bizarrely a Christmas comedy being released two weeks before Thanksgiving, and it doesn’t help that the film looks massively cheap. It seems more like a TV movie from several years ago, rather than a $17M film getting released in theaters. Between atrocious reviews (17%), a lack of compelling marketing and too much competition, Love the Coopers is probably set for under $5M this weekend.

Spectre is likely to have a second weekend more akin to Quantum of Solace rather than Skyfall, but likely somewhat in between. After the actuals came in, it came out to a relatively disappointing $70.4M. A 58% drop would give it a weekend of $29.5M, which is a likely result given that it has much less competition than Quantum of Solace did in its second weekend.

The Peanuts Movie might actually wind up in first this weekend, considering it had an unusually high Saturday jump last weekend. It went up 62.1%, higher than Wreck-it Ralph‘s 57.7% and Big Hero 6‘s 52.1%. Because of this, The Peanuts Movie has a better chance of taking first with around $30M this weekend.

Predictions

  1. The Peanuts Movie – $30M
  2. Spectre – $29.5M
  3. The Martian – $7.2M
  4. The 33 – $6.4M
  5. Goosebumps – $5M

Love the Coopers – $3.2M

Bar for Success

Love the Coopers and The 33 are both relatively low budget holiday films, so they’re okay if they can hit $10M.

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