Weekend Forecast: “The Martian” to Fend Off Trio of Newcomers

Reader bewaaare, you’re in for a scaaare

Three big new films are opening this week, but none of them will likely be able to top The Martian over a very crowded October weekend.

Goosebumps has the highest budget of the three, but by a very slim margin. While it was initially being reported at $85M, it was just updated today as being $58M. That’s a much more reasonable budget for a film pretty much being solid on nostalgia, and should have a much easier time making that back than nearly $100M. Sony made the smart decision to push the film back from its original August release date, as it seems like October is the perfect time to release it. Similar family films like ParaNorman and Monster House made the mistakes of releasing a Halloween movie in late summer. It also helps that unlike those two which were primarily trying to be scary (a tactic that doesn’t mesh well with kids and families) it is instead just a goofy action-comedy with plenty of familiar monsters from the books. That seems like a smart strategy of adapting the beloved series, and so far has received very positive reactions online. Whether or not that translates into ticket sales is yet to be seen. Goosebumps probably has enough nostalgia power to make it past the $20M mark, just not by much.

Bridge of Spies opens around 2 years after Captain Phillips, the last big Tom Hanks vehicle. That film slightly surpassed expectations with a solid $25M opening en route to over $100M domestic and $218M worldwide. However, Bridge of Spies does not seem as interesting, exciting or immediately accessible as that film, and as a result will likely see a smaller debut. History buffs will likely show up in droves, but there is certainly a chance that it gets cannibalized by the waves of other choices for adults in theaters right now. A high teens debut would still be fine as it will likely hold up very well in the long run, and the Cold War is a period of history that hasn’t seen many major film adaptations in recent years. Having Steven Spielberg’s name attached will certainly help its potential, as well as its 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. Bridge of Spies will probably open to around $17M this weekend.

Finally, Guillermo Del Toro’s new gothic horror film Crimson Peak opens in both standard films and in IMAX, which is very unusual for an R rated horror film. However its very beautiful and stylized appearance may boost its appeal among horror fans and Del Toro fans. The problem is, it has a heft $55M budget and considering almost every horror film in the last half decade has been produced by Blumhouse for well under $10M, it will likely have hard time recouping that money. The best that Crimson Peak can hope for is a debut in the low teens. Whether or not it will be very front loaded like typical horror films or hold well like adult dramas will be tricky.

Predictions

  1. The Martian – $23M
  2. Goosebumps – $21M
  3. Bridge of Spies – $16.5M
  4. Crimson Peak – $14M
  5. Hotel Transylvania – $11M

The Bottom Line

Even though it will probably have solid overseas grosses, Goosebumps needs at least $20M this weekend to get a pass. Bridge of Spies and Crimson Peak are both fine at $15M.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s