Saturday Update: “Fantastic” Fails with $11M Friday

Whoops.

Fantastic Four was anything but, falling well below expectations of a $40M debut (ha! told you!) for an estimated $27M weekend based on a very poor $11M Friday, officially making it the first $100M bomb of the year.

Pop the champagne, ladies and gents, we got one.

So why did it do so poorly? Well, there’s a number of reasons, the most notable of which has to be the films atrocious 9% on Rotten Tomatoes. Even the most casual moviegoer knows about Rotten Tomatoes, and how rare a score that bad is. This is actually the lowest debut for a major comic book film since Blade. Adjusted for inflation, that took in $29M in its opening weekend back in 1998. That’s a true testament to how big of a flop this is. At this point, it has a microscopic chance of turning a profit if overseas grosses are very good, but that seems very unlikely. It looks as though Fantastic Four 2 will be thrown in the TBA pile within a month or so. The final nail in the coffin was that the Cinemascore was a C-. Yes, you read that right. That’s an utterly atrocious score and shows that word of mouth is going to be absolutely toxic.

While all the headlines will be doom and gloom over Fantastic Four‘s awful performance, there was a bright spot as well; The Gift  surpassed expectations for a very good $4.1M from just 1,648 locations. Believe it or not, it’s per theater average was actually very close to Fantastic Four, which is utterly mind boggling. It could actually hit $10M this weekend, which would be an excellent result for the critically acclaimed thriller. The Gift got a B from Cinemascore, but given the nature of the film that’s not bad.

Ricki and the Flash took in $2.25M on Friday, on course for a weekend of around $6M or so. That’s an okay debut, but probably won’t have the long legs that studio was hoping for, due to its B on Cinemascore. For a supposedly feel good movie for an older audience, that’s a mediocre score. Ricki will likely top out in the $15M-$20M range.

Shaun the Sheep Movie continued to pull in low, yet unsurprising numbers. It actually missed the Top 10 on Friday with just $1.22M. Still, that’s a solid 70% jump from Thursday. Currently it’s up to $2.8M and may reach $5M by Sunday.

Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation took in $8.2M on its second Friday, down 60% from last Friday. That’s not a terrible drop, and it may actually win the weekend depending on how well it does today and tomorrow. So far every Mission Impossible has won its second weekend, and it looks as though Rogue Nation will continue that trend.

Updated Predictions

  1. Fantastic Four – $26.5M
  2. The Gift – $10.1M
  3. Ricki and the Flash – $5.6M
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie – $3.7M ($5.2M Five Day)
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