Weekend Forecast: Could “Inside Out” be Pixars first 2nd-Place Debut?

One week after Jurassic World blew everything else out of the water, it faces some tough competition from Pixar’s newest film, Inside Out. Despite their amazing financial track record, there is decent reason to believe that out of all 15 films, this newest one may be the first to not open in the top spot at the box office. Lets take a closer look at how Jurassic World might hold up this weekend, and if Inside Out really has a chance at first place.

Pixars last film, Monsters University, opened over $80M, but Monsters Inc is easily one of Pixars most popular films which gave it more opening weekend demand than something like Inside Out, especially given it is a more emotional, character driven film (or, emotion characters if you will) instead of focusing on action or comedy, but its hard to say anything made by Pixar is really a hard sell. Just slap their brand on it and bam, you got $60M in your opening weekend.

Given that there hasn’t been a new Pixar film in two years, is the demand any higher? Well, yes and no. Pixars audience is very consistent, except for when it is something based on one of their extremely popular franchises. Typically they are somewhere in the $60-$80M range regardless of what it is, so

Three years ago, The Avengers had a fall of just 50%, the first film to ever make over $100M in its second weekend. Given how well Jurassic has been doing on Monday and Tuesday, and how much it blew expectations out of the water, its hard to definitively say what is “impossible” for the well received dinosaur flick. It made around $50M just from Monday and Tuesday, so another $100M for the weekend is not unreasonable. Still, that was a lightning-in-a-bottle “event” film. While its easy to get caught up in all the record breaking, its still important to try and take a realistic look at it. Still, the fact that sometime next week it could pass the adjusted gross of The Lost World: Jurassic Park, which is a pretty incredible result.

Also opening this weekend is low budget comedy Dope, which has received a boost from strong online buzz and great reviews. However any films related to drugs are always limited at the box office, and Dope is certainly a very niche kind of comedy. Still, with decent marketing it should do some decent business this weekend.

Predictions

1. Jurassic World – $101.5M

2. Inside Out – $72.5M

3. Spy – $9.5M

4. Dope – $6.5M

5. San Andreas – $4.1M

The Bottom Line

Inside Out is Pixars first film in two years, so logically there is a bit of fan demand, but with a less easily marketable premise $60M will be fine.

Dope is a low budget drug-based comedy, so $5M is a decent start.

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