Fourteen years after the last installment, Jurassic World is set to dominate the box office after several quiet weekends. This should easily be the first film to top $100M in its opening weekend since Avengers, with expectations flying all over the board due to rising popularity and online anticipation.
While fan reactions on movie websites have been less than thrilled, it is also important to remember that most of the general population is going to be excited for a new Jurassic Park film, especially one with a somewhat darker and scarier look than previously. The reviews so far are decent with a 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, and Fandango is reporting that presales are outpacing that of anything from last summer, when no movie opened past $100M (Transformers was controversial, as many reported it was only around $97) but Jurassic will likely have no problem topping that bar.
The real exciting part, however, is overseas. Can Jurassic World top Godzilla from last year? That film dealt with mied word of mouth and was notoriously front loaded, but still made over $500M worldwide. Depending on how well it is received, Jurassic should be able to cross $400M overseas, especially given how much China’s box office has grown in the months since then.
Because of a colossal release like this, there’s no other major releases and only one limited release with any amount of hype; Me, Earl and the Dying Girl. The book which it is based upon is very popular, and in only 14 theaters this should be able to top $10,000 per theater average this weekend.
Outside of that, it will likely be business as usual. Spy may do decently with the adult crowd thanks to strong word of mouth, San Andreas is likely going to get crushed given that Jurassic World is going for the exact same audience (and is newer and more anticipated), Insidious: Chapter 3 will likely have a steep fall after a solid opening, which is fine given the foreign results and low budget. Finally, Entourage is probably going to fall like a rock after depleting its fanbase it the five day opening, and Mad Max: Fury Road will likely have the multiple weeks of small drops come to an end after an excellent four week run so far.
1. Jurassic World – $117.5M
2. Spy – $18.5M
3. San Andreas – $10.1M
4. Insidious: Chapter 3 – $9.0M
5. Entourage – $3.8M
The Bottom Line
Given how popular the original film is and the lack of major competition, and how front loaded it will likely be, Jurassic World should really be opening to at least $100M this weekend.